Cubs v. Astros (Game 2)

According to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, this will be the Cubs lineup this evening in Houston:

1. LF Alfonso Soriano, R

2. SS Ryan Theriot, R

3. 1B Derrek Lee, R

4. RF Milton Bradley, S

5. 3B Aramis Ramirez, R

6. CF Reed Johnson, R

7. C Geovany Soto, R

8. 2B Mike Fontenot, L

9. P Ryan "Will Ferrell's understudy" Dempster, R

Thoughts

- As Justin predicted earlier, there are changes with a lefty on the mound in Wandy Rodriguez. I mentioned Rodriguez in my "hinge players" post as an extremely important player for the Astros success. Of all the non-Oswalt pitchers in the Houston rotation, he is the one most capable of putting up a good performance, let's just hope that doesn't happen tonight. 

- I would expect Aramis to build on his home run last night, as he always performs well in Minute Maid Park. He has 16 career home runs there, which is the most in a ballpark he hasn't called home (Wrigley, clearly, and PNC Park are the top two). The Crawford boxes really blend well with Aramis' power stroke, as we saw last night.

- Aramis will need to get some runs in tonight because (again as Justin said earlier) Carlos Lee certainly will not be held down like he was last night. In 90 career games against the Cubs he has hit .313-27-76. Probably most impressive is his .610 slugging percentage against the Cubs. Watch out Ryan Dempster.

Game in 40 minutes. Go Cubs. 

What to do with the 2-3 Combo and Cubs- Astros Game 2

Allow me a brief overreaction to the performance of two players after one game. I feel I've made my thoughts on Kosuke Fukudome clear, but he showed again last night that he isn't much for hitting the baseball and he looked lost in centerfield. After Lou removed him in favor of Joey Gathright, it seems to me that Lou might not be big on Fukudome. I'm not going to worry about it yet because I know that Lou will just bench Dome if he keeps on not hitting.

I am worried about Derrek Lee too. He looked okay at the plate last night, but he was noticeably upset at himself after a strikeout. He has experienced a dip in power and production the last two seasons and he isn't getting any younger. I can tolerate Lee sucking a lot longer than Fukudome because at least Lee plays awesome defense and has a track record of being good over the course of the season.

On to tonight's game. Ryan Dempster the best pitcher on the Cubs last season takes on Wandy Rodriquez who may or may not be good against the Cubs. The Cubs lineup might have a different look to it with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. Theriot or Reed Mantle will probably hit second while the other will hit in the eight hole. Since Fontenot did have a good game last night Aaron Miles might have to wait to make his starting debut. 

No reason for the Astros to change their lineup. I think Carlos Lee will have a big game, especially since we shut him down last night. The Cubs have beaten up Wandy before, but I must have missed those games because I remember him shutting down the Cubs. 

Bottom Line- Dempster needs to show he is still a good starter and the Cubs offense should keep trucking tonight. Barring a bullpen meltdown the Cubs should be the favorites tonight, still I'm taking Astros to win 6-4.

The first W (hopefully of many)

Cubs 4 - Astros 2

There isn't really any better way to say it: the Cubs did a lot of good things tonight. Soriano had the ultimate leadoff home run, leading off the season with a solo blast. Carlos Zambrano actually pitched really, really well on an opening day. The 6-7-8 hitters looked great. 

To be quite honest, there really wasn't too much to be disappointed about tonight. The bullpen did look a little shaky, but the only run they gave up was Kevin Gregg's in the ninth inning, which you can't complain about too much in a win. Marmol looked like he threw a few too many pitches, but he did have to face Berkman and Lee, and I thought he handled them the way he should have. Aaron Heilman induced a double play ground ball to save Z, and the run scoring infield hit he gave up to Michael Bourn really was not his fault. Anytime a guy with speed like that squibs a slow rolling ball it isn't the pitchers fault (no matter how slowly the pitcher lumbers to the ball). 

I just want to point out how well I think Fontenot, Soto, and Theriot did at the bottom of the order. The trio combined to go 5-10 and scored two of the four runs. Fontenot looked great with 3 hits, though one was due to Carlos Lee's ineptitude on defense. If those three can put together active, productive on a nightly basis, the Cubs will score a lot of runs this season. 

Kosuke may be well on his way to the bench. I don't want to jump the gun and pronounce him dead after one game, but he did nothing to prove he belongs out there tonight. It was very interesting that the oft-injured Milton Bradley and defensively-inept at times Soriano were not the ones removed for a defensive replacement in the 9th, but rather it was Fukudome, which shows how little Lou's confidence in him is.

Cubs v. Astros (Game 1)

According to Bruce Miles, this will be Cubs lineup tonight:

1. LF Alfonso Soriano, R

2. CF Kosuke Fukudome, L

3. 1B Derrek Lee, R

4. RF Milton Bradley, S

5. 3B Aramis Ramirez, R

6. 2B Mike Fontenot, L 

7. C Geovany Soto, R

8. SS Ryan Theriot, R

9. P Carlos "el toro 38" Zambrano, S

Some thoughts:

- You can see the righty/lefty balance that has been so widely-discussed the past two years right there in the lineup card. The proof will be in the pudding: let's see how it works out against a great righthander in Roy Oswalt.

- Speaking of Oswalt, he is 72-22 in 124 career games at Minute Maid Park. To me that is just unbelievable. I know that win-loss record isn't a great stat to measure pitchers, but his career ERA at home is 2.68. Wow. 

- I think is obviously real important for all the hitters to get off to solid starts, but more so for Milton Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome. Much like Derrek Lee in 2004, the media will be all over Bradley if he gets off to a tough start in his initial year as a Cub. I only know what I've read about his psyche, and I really think the vast majority of it is much ado about nothing, but it still couldn't hurt for some pressure to be taken off him. Dome just flat out needs to quite the critics, and show any reason why he should get time instead of Reed Johnson. 

NL Central "hinge" players

With the season beginning tomorrow, I decided to take a look at what I call "hinge" players on all the NL Central teams. "Hinge" players might not be the best player on their respective team, but them having a breakout could go a long way in determining their team's success. If you want to with cliches, they would be referred to as "x-factors." 

Cubs - Rich Harden

Harden put up really impressive numbers after coming over from the A's last season (5-1, 1.78), however he was skipped over a few times in the rotation for preventive reasons. If this is the case in 2009 and he makes say, 24 starts instead of 30, that is completely fine to me. The fact is he has to actually make those starts. When healthy he is the best pitcher, and maybe even player the Cubs have. If he is able to start 24+ games, he makes a very good rotation an elite one. Milton Bradley easily could have been put here as well, but I think that the Cubs can withstand Bradley's replacement player (Fukudome/Hoffpauir) better than they could Harden's (Samardzija).

Cardinals - Chris Carpenter 

Yes, this is the easiest one to pick. Carpenter, if healthy, is clearly the best pitcher in the division. Think of it this way: in a three game series where the Cards rotation stacks up the right way, you get Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lohse/Wellemeyer. With these pitchers going, you have a extremely good chance of taking of 2/3. If Carpenter isn't in there, you still you know you will get a good outing with Wainwright, but Lohse and Wellemeyer are uncertainties heading into the season. Putting known quantities (that bring back positive results) on the mound on a night to night basis is what it is all about, and if healthy, Carpenter drastically improves the Cardinals. 

Brewers - Corey Hart 

It would have been really easy, and probably right, to pick Yovani Gallardo here, but I chose to go with Hart. I don't think the Brewers will be able to outpitch hardly anyone this season, so they will have to rely on their solid lineup to win them games. This is simply something Brewer fans should accept. Fielder and Braun will definitely rake, so it will be up to Hart (who does not have the pedigree or natural talent of the other two) to repeat his All-Star form and provide another dimension to the Brewers offense. 

Astros - Wandy Rodriguez

Oswalt will be good. Berkman/Lee will lead an offense that will score enough runs to keep Houston competitive on any given night. Rodriguez is the best chance the Astros have to give them great starts out of a rotation spot not claimed by Oswalt.

Reds - Jay Bruce

For so many years the Reds had a glut of outfielders with plus power in Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, etc. Now with them all gone, and with light-hitting outfielders Willly Taveras and Chris Dickerson replacing them, the Reds need someone to bring the power back. Bruce seems to be a can't miss prospect, and I have no doubts he will be just that. However, the Reds need him to give them a power threat next to Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion.

Pirates - Andy LaRoche

I'm not going to try to rationalize the Pirates pitching staff, which I consider to be the place to lay a foundation when you are rebuilding. LaRoche is the most likely player to develop into a Jason Bay-type great player that goes unnoticed on a small-market losing team. 

Sox Home Opener Postponed

Per Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times the White Sox home opener has been postponed to Tuesday at 1:05.

Twitter post from Joe Cowley - cst_sox Sox-Royals postponed until Tuesday. Have a fun snowball fight until then.

This is an absolute joke. I am fine with the fact that the weather is going to be bad, but they are postponing the came almost 24 hours in advance. Really? I know that Tom Skilling is good, but, and this may shock some Chicagoans, he has been wrong. I fully believe that it will rain/snow/sleet tomorrow, but to move a game back that early is ridiculous.

I really hope it's a beautiful day tomorrow so we stop postponing games 20 hours before game time.

EDIT - It is now on the front page of WhiteSox.com.

Pre-Season Awards Predictions

American League MVP

Grady Sizemore CF, Cleveland Indians

I really wanted to pick Carlos Quentin for this, but I just couldn's do it. I have really always been a fan of Sizemore. Well fan may not be the right word because I've probably swore at him more than any non-Twin in the American League. But this guy is really a star and I think this could be on of his best seasons yet. Expect him to be flirting with 30/30 and most likely hit over .300. Second place for me would be Mark Teixeira, followed by Carlos.

American League Cy Young

Dallas Braden, LHP, Oakland A's

Braden was named the Opening Day starter for the A's a few days back and I really expect this guy to have a great year. Pitching in the Colliseum in a weak division really bodes well for Braden. I'm always partial to A's pitching because of their track record, but I think this guy has a legitamate shot of being the next star that comes out of that system.

American League Rookie of the Year

Chris Getz, 2B, Chicago White Sox

Yeah that's right, I'm picking Chris Getz. Sure it's an extreme homer pick but I think he actually does have a good shot of winning it. First off he is the starting second baseman for the Sox on Opening Day which more than Matt Weiters or David Price can say with their respective teams. I see Getz hitting around .300 and stealing his share of bases this year. I think it will be a little bit of a down year for rookies, so Getz definitely has a shot.

American League Manager of the Year

Bob Geren, Oakland A's

The A's were brutal last year finishing at 75-86. This year I have them winning 84 games and winning the division. A 9 game jump isn't bad but going from worst to first is always something that puts you at the top of the list to win this award.

American League Most Disappointing Player

Josh Hamilton, CF, Texas Rangers

This was a close call for me between Hamilton and CC Sabathia. There is obviously a great chance either (or both) of these guys have good years, but I think the expectations are so high that an average season will be looked at as a colossal disappointment. I still have Hamilton having a solid season, he's just not going to be as good as last year and people will see it as a let down.

National League MVP
Manny Ramirez, LF, Los Angeles Dodgers
National League Cy Young
Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco Giants
National League Rookie of the Year
Cameron Maybin, CF, Florida Marlins
National League Manager of the Year
Joe Torre, Los Angeles Dodgers
National League Most Disappointing
Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

Pre-Season Predictions from Fans around the NL Central

I wanted to get some outside opinion when it comes to predictions for this season so I got a fellow Cub fan Robby to give me his predictions, a Cardinal fan Dan to add his opinion, Craig the world's last Reds fan to add his Dusty influenced thoughts, and Greg and myself also give our opinions.

Robby

AL/NL

East- Red Sox/Mets

Central- Royals/Cubs

West- Angels/Dodgers

WC- Yankees/Phillies

MVP- David Ortiz/Manny Ramirez

ROY- David Price/Cameron Maybin

Cy Young- CC Sabathia/ Jake Peavy

Manager of Year- Trey Hillman/ Joe Torre

Most Disappointing- A-Rod/ Ryan Howard

ALCS- Red Sox over Yankees in 6

NLCS- Cubs over Mets in 6

WS- Cubs over Red Sox in 5

Justin

AL/NL

East- Rays/Mets

Central- Tigers/Cubs

West- Angels/Dodgers

WC- Red Sox/ Phillies

MVP- B.J. Upton/Jose Reyes

ROY- David Price/Colby Rasmus

Cy Young- Jon Lester/Ted Lilly

Manager of Year- Joe Maddon/Charlie Manuel 

Most Disappointing- The Yankees/Rich Harden

ALCS- Rays over Red Sox in 7

NLCS- Mets over Dodgers in 6 (Cubs do win at least one game in the NLDS)

WS- Rays over Mets in 7

Greg

AL/NL

East- Red Sox/Mets

Central- White Sox/Cubs

West- A's/ Diamondbacks

WC- Yankees/Phillies

MVP- Mark Teixeira/David Wright

ROY- Matt Weiters/Pablo Sandoval

Cy Young- Jon Lester/ Cole Hamels

Manager- Bob Geren/Bruce Bochy

Most Disappointing- Kerry Wood/Francisco Rodriguez

ALCS- Yankees over Red Sox

NLCS- Cubs over D-Backs

WS- Yankees over Cubs

Dan- Cardinals fan

AL/NL

East- Rays/Braves

Central- White Sox/Cubs

West- Angels/Diamondbacks

WC- Indians/Cardinals

MVP- Vladimir Guerrero/ Chipper Jones

Cy Young- Scott Kazmir/Tim Lincecum

Manager of Year- Eric Wedge /Lou Pinella

ROY- Matt Wieters/Colby Rasmus

Most Disappointing- Red Sox/Teixeira//Phillies/Francisco Rodriguez

ALCS- Rays over Angels 5

NLCS- Braves over Cubs in 6

WS- Braves over Rays in 5

Craig- Reds Fan

AL/NL

East- Red Sox/Mets

Central- White Sox/ Cubs

West- A's/Dodgers

WC- Yankees/Phillies

MVP- Josh Hamilton/ Ryan Howard

Cy Young- CC Sabathia/Carlos Zambrano

ROY- Travis Snider/ Dexter Fowler

Most Disappointing- Kevin Youkilis/Jake Peavy

WS- Red Sox over Dodgers

So there you have it, many different opinions on this upcoming baseball season I sure hope Robby is right.

Pre-Season Predictions

Rather than picking every position like my colleague is doing with the NL Central, I'm just going to break down the American League by division and give a quick paragraph about why I believe it will go down the way I lay it out. So here goes.

American League Central

Cleveland Indians (92-70)
Chicago White Sox (84-78)
Detroit Tigers (78-84)
Kansas City Royals (77-85)
Minnesota Twins (70-92)

I really do think the White Sox have a legitimate shot of competing in this division but there are just too many question marks to pick them to win. But the Indians will win this division because they are the best team 1-25. They won't get quite the same year out of Cliff Lee and of course they don't have any CC this year, but I think overall their pitching will be better because it's deeper this year with Pavano and a healthy Fausto Carmona.
I'm not buying into the Royals being that much better. I still think they are 1 or 2 years from being an actual contender. I'm not saying they won't have stretches where they look like a good team, I'm just saying there are too many weaknesses. The Twins always out preform what people think they will do, so I figure if I pick them to win 70 games maybe they will win 80 and still not be in the running. Honestly I'm just sick of those pirhannas and I cannot wait until that damn dome comes down.

American League East

Boston Red Sox (99-63)
New York Yankees (98-64)
Baltimore Orioles (81-81)
Tampa Bay Rays (79-83)
Toronto Blue Jays (71-92)

Many believe the best three teams in baseball are in the AL East. And honestly I think if I were to rank teams right now as it may be true. But I just don't think the Rays will be able to do it again. They will be under a lot of pressure to compete with the two juggernauts at the top.
As far as he top two go, I'm taking the Red Sox because of the way the season will start. The Yankees are going to go through a rough patch to start the season. No Arod, new stadium, three key guys adapting to New York, and all the pressures that come with being the pre-season best team, it's going to be tough to go out there and be loose. The Red Sox on the other hand haven't seen too many changes and they now have a large chip on their collective shoulder to beat out the evil empire. I like the Red Sox to eventually come out on top, but ESPN will have a field day with how close it will be. Mark down Sept 25,26, and 27 for days to not watch TV if you don't like the AL East. No matter how the other races are going, Yanks/BoSox will be all that matters in the universe for those three days.

American League West

Oakland A's (84-78)
Texas Rangers (81-81)
Los Angeles Angels (78-84)
Seattle Mariners (60-102)

The Oakland A's are a team not too many people are talking about. But I really think this team is going to be tough. Their pitching staff consists of 5 guys you have never heard of. Dana Eveland, Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Trever Cahill, and Josh Outman. I will guarantee you that 1 (maybe 2) of the back three in that rotation will be a star this year. The A's have been doing this for years now, and there's no reason to believe it will stop now. The difference this year is thay the rest of the division is pathetic.
The Angels are the team in this division that I think will shock everyone with how bad they are. The are starting the season with half of their pitching staff on the DL, and they have no replacement for losing their best player from last year. Kendry Morales is the replacement for Teixeira, that's not good.
One to the other two teams. The Mariners are pathetic. That is all I have to say about them. The Rangers are not too bad but they will be the same Rangers as old. They will tear the cover off the ball, but then give up more runs then they score. I got them getting out to a good start, but I don't think it will last. They will win a good share of games and they may make it interesting with the A's at the end, but I think they will come up short.

Playoff Predictions
Yankees over Indians
A's over Red Sox
Yankees over A's

Just for fun here are my National League picks.

NL East
Mets, Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals

NL Central

Cubs, Astros, Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates
NL West
Dodgers, Giants (WC), Padres, D-Backs, Rockies

World Series Prediction
Yankees over Dodgers

What the Cubs lineup should be

I know there will be some disagreement with this from Justin (especially at the leadoff spot), but I think the following gives the Cubs the best chance to score runs.

1. 2B Mike Fontenot - Fontenot is clearly not a natural leadoff hitter, but since there isn't one on the team, I think he is the best hit. His OBP is .395, and this is higher than Theriot's, and really all that matters to me from this position. He really can't steal bases, but is a pretty intelligent base runner. His surprising power also wouldn't hurt here. 

2. 1B Derrek Lee - He can still hit singles and doubles (40+ over the past two seasons) at an elite level, but his declining power and 27 double play balls last year just won't cut it in the 3 spot. He is getting older but does have some speed left that could be a small asset. Maybe without the pressure of hitting third he can get back to his pre-wrist injury form that the Cubs desperately need.

3. RF Milton Bradley - If he is on the field, Bradley is the best pure hitter the Cubs have. His AVG (.321) and OPS (.999) last year were great, and the fact that he is a switch-hitter make a logical choice for this spot.

4. 3B Aramis Ramirez - Since the latter half of 2003, Aramis Ramirez has been the best and most consistent hitter in the Cubs' organization. How many other teams can say that? The only other players/teams that came to my mind were Pujols/Cardinals, Berkman/Astros, Ichiro/Mariners, Vlad/Angels, A-Rod/Yankees, and Ramirez/Red Sox. I don't know if this really means anything, but it is interesting to look at. The point is, Aramis is the undisputed cleanup hitter.

5. LF Alfonso Soriano - Putting Soriano in the 5 spot to me isn't an insult. Plain and simple has best attribute is his power, and it would be best utilized for the team in this spot. The collective OBP of the players listed above last year was .393. With that many runners on base in front him, imagine the RBI totals he could put up. Those first inning solo shots could turn into first or second inning two run home runs. 

6. C Geovany Soto - I really like Geo, but I think it is pretty safe to assume his numbers are going to fall this year. A realistic expectation should be .270-20-75, and I still think that is really good in the lower half of a lineup. 

7. CF Kosuke Fukudome - I think that there is a very good case for starting Reed Johnson and batting him here, but I think Dome should be given the initial shot. I am not very playing guys simply because they are being paid more. However, Reed Johnson has proved over his career he can be effective in a part-time role. If he is pressed into regular service, that is fine, but he is already a known quantity. I hope Dome is given at least a month to see if he can build on his supposed core workouts over the off-season. He had wrist surgery in 2006, so I feel like he should be given the benefit of the doubt, despite his awful second half last year. If he can return to even .275-10-60 with his solid defense and decent speed, he can contribute. 

8. SS Ryan Theriot - He did have a good average, but other than he didn't do much of anything positive at the plate last year.