This is a quick breakdown of the 5 game series starting with the day/night doubleheader tomorrow between the White Sox and Tigers.
Game 1 - Richard vs. Galarraga 1:05 Monday
If this match up stays as it is scheduled (Contreras could start game one) the Sox have a good chance in this game. Richard has been good since the trade rumors and Galarraga has been bad for his past few starts. The Tigers just won a series from the Angels, but they have not been particularly hot as of late. I look for the Sox to get a solid outing out of Clayton and score a few on Galarraga. Sox chance of winning - 68%
Game 2 - Contreras vs. Bonderman 7:11 Monday
This will be Bonderman's first start since June of '08. He is 5-9 with an ERA of 4.40 lifetime against the Sox. As for Contreras this is first start since his DL rehab/not being good minor league stint. I usually say the Sox will lose when Jose pitches, and this will differ from that, but I can actually see him throwing a good game. Don't bet the house on it though. Sox chance of winning - 34%
Game 3 - Buehrle vs. Willis 7:11 Tuesday
Sox should win this game. Buehrle is the rock of the Sox rotation and is coming off a bad outing (which means he's "due" for a good one, right?) and Willis was awful in his last start (which means he will be bad again, right?) and is still trying to regain his Marlin form. If there's one game the Sox need to win in this series, it's this one. Sox chance of winning - 80%
Game 4 - Danks vs. Verlander 7:11 Wednesday
Verlander is one of the only staff aces that the Sox consistantly have good efforts against. He's just 2-9 with an ERA just short of 6 lifetime against the Sox. And on top of that he's never won at the Cell (0-6 in 8 starts). Danks has not been on top of his game this year, but he's pretty familiar with the Tigers so I would hope he has a good plan of attack and can go have a good start. I'm going to put this percentage a little lower than I probably should because I never bank on career stats when it comes to an ace like Verlander. Sox chance of winning - 55%
Game 5 - Floyd vs. Jackson 1:05 Thursday
Gavin has been on and off for much of this year. Last game he was really good, and historically he's pretty dominant against the Tigers (5-0, 3.88 ERA in 10 starts). However Edwin Jackson has been the best the Tigers have this year, and I think this is the one where the Sox have the worst chance of scoring against Detroit. I'm not high on the Sox chances, but Floyd can have his good stuff at any point and be truly dominant. Sox chance of winning - 40%
Overall based on my percentages I have the Sox winning 3 of the 5 games, but I could see it going a little better or a little worse. 2 wins or 4 wins wouldn't surprise me too much. Let's go to work White Sox, this is a huge chance.
Post your comments about what you think the Sox chances are in this series and make your predictions as well. This is a big series, are you as optomistic as I am?
I was surprised by your percentage for Danks-Verlander, but then I read closer and the numbers don't lie (0-6 is not good). How have the Sox done so well against a good pitcher like him in recent meetings?
ReplyDeleteIn response to your earlier post, I like the 5 game series too. That way you see everybody.
I said that about the 5 game series not realizing that you actually don't see everyone because of the doubleheader. Still though, it's cool to have a long series like this in the middle of the year. It's a nice change of pace.
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