Friday, April 6, 2012

What are the Chances?

The Sox are 1.5 run underdogs in this Opening Day match up with the defending AL Champ Texas Rangers.  The Sox come in as the biggest dog on the day sitting at +175 on the moneyline.

So, the experts don't really like the Sox chances today.  But what do we here in the horribly biased world of TCB?

Well, I like the chances more than Vegas, but I'm still not be any means expecting a W this afternoon.  Opening Day's are almost always toss ups.  When you take a look at the history of playoff teams in their Opening games, there's not really a significant trend one way or the other.  So +175 seems a bit steep to me.

I like John Danks a lot in this game.  Danks has a 3.81 ERA in the past 5 seasons against the Rangers which is fantastic when you look at how powerful the Ranger lineup has bene recently.  Danks is tough to face on an Opening Day because of his style.  Left hander that mixes it up, has the ability to strike you out, these kinds of guys usually do pretty well early.

As far as the hitters go, the Sox have had some success against Colby Lewis in the past.  It's a guy most of the lineup has seen before, which is usually a huge plus for the Sox.  Dunn is the current MLB leader in Opening Day HR's with 7, and Rios and Konerko both have solid Opening Day numbers as well.

Last year the Sox killed the ball in their first game against Fausto Carmona and the Indians.  Offensively this looks like a much better matchup than one year ago.

The Sox are 2-2 historically against the Rangers on Opening Day with the last time being a loss in 2000.

The Sox would definitely surprise some people with a win today, but that's not to say it's a longshot.

Let's Play Some Baseball!!!

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