The Curse of Believing in Curses

So the Daily Herald's Mike Imrem wrote an article about trading Starlin Castro. Reasonable enough, right? It's an idea that's been floated on this very blog, no less. Unfortunately, the logic behind the argument is...less than sound.. Allow me to indulge myself and tackle this in a fashion that blatantly rips off Fire Joe Morgan.

The Cubs have to trade Starlin Castro for his sake and theirs.
Okay, that might be a little extreme, but trading Castro could be a very good idea. He’s young, cheap and talented, but his flaws might prevent him from developing much further. He’s a guy that would command a lot of talent in return, which the Cubs could use at roughly Every Single Position.
 
Let’s think about how we can explain this. Hmmm. OK, here goes.
Well, if the above isn’t enough: he walks less than someone who has entertained the thought of purchasing a Rascal scooter; he hasn’t shown much power and counting on him to develop some as he ages is risky; his value is tied to his batting average never ever dipping below .300, which is a Herculean task for non-Ichiros; his defense stands out as noticeably bad on a team that features Alfonso: Not Just Old Anymore, But Also With One Functioning Leg. Is that enough?
 
Castro is a threat to Wrigley Field the way emerald ash borer is to some suburbs.
He’s infected and infectious.
The Cubs’ curse that has spread through this franchise for decades has wrapped its hands around the young shortstop and can’t be expected to let go.
Tortured metaphor aside (if you think it’s bad now, wait -- things are about to get all 24 in here), there might be some value to this. The Cubs, historically, are an organization that hasn’t prioritized getting on base. While Epstein and Hoyer will hopefully change the culture, it might be too late for Castro to develop patience and foisting him off on someone else before everyone else figures that out could be a good idea. It’s not like he’s actually referring to a literal curs--
 
Kerry Wood was inflicted, too, and had to retire recently. Ryan Dempster is and has to be surgically removed via trade or free agency.
Oh! Okay, we’re into some Real Stupid territory here. Ryan Dempster is 0-3 with a 2.90 ERA. The Cubs are trading him because he'll get a good return due to being a good baseball player. Also, because they'd go 74-88 even with 1999 Pedro pitching every game. Kerry Wood’s curse was having a frisbee-esque breaking ball that happened to be impossible to throw without destroying your elbow, then being managed by Dusty Baker. The intolerable consequence of this curse is that Wood had to move to the bullpen and become a good reliever until he was 34, because no other relievers have dropped off a cliff before and all pitchers stay good through their mid 30s.
 
Apparently nothing can be done about Alfonso Soriano except to let him rot away to his roots in left field.
Ha! Like a tree. Remember, earlier, when he said the Cubs were literally cursed with an infestation like one that might affect a tree? That’s what this is playing off of, in case you missed it. (Alfonso Soriano, of course, wasn’t a product of money burning a hole in Jim Henrdy’s pocket; on any other team, paying a guy $136 million over 8 years at age 31 would have worked out fine! Cursed!)
 
Jeff Samardzija? Well, the Cubs can only hope that he is a mighty oak immune to the outbreak.
I’m going to gloss over the fact that some people don’t fit this narrative by weaving it into this hilariously topical analogy. Bryan LaHair is like a newly discovered redwood, super old but strong. Tony Campana and Darwin Barney? A pair of bonsai, tiny and flying under the radar of the destructive Mythical Curse That An Adult Believes Is Affecting A Baseball Team. David DeJesus is a cactus, or something.
 
Castro hasn’t been so fortunate, as events of the past week demonstrated.
First, a baserunning blunder. Then, forgetting the number of outs in an inning. Overall, suffering a bad case of brain cramps.
First, he made a mistake. Then, he made another mistake?! So many curses I feel like I’m listening to a Bob Saget stand-up routine! (which is, by the way, one of the few activities on this planet that is equally as enjoyable as watching the Cubs play baseball.)
 
These are baseball boo-boos that Castro likely rarely made in his native Dominican Republic, in the minor leagues or in his worst nightmares.
Can I say that something probably happened without looking it up if it makes my story easier? That’s in the AP stylebook, right? “Starlin Castro never once tripped on his shoelaces before coming to Chicago, I’d guess, in the reality that I’ve created. Explain that hypothetical scenario I just made up, curse-deniers!”
 
Theo Epstein, the Cubs’ president in charge of curing all ills, is planting the seeds of a new culture and can’t risk having a daffy-odil seed in the mix.
INT - Cubs clubhouse, 2013. Hot-shot prospect Anthony Rizzo is getting ready for batting practice when he hears a voice calling from the rafters:
“Psst...Rizzo. Yeah, you.”
“...Starlin? But I thought you were--”
“Oh, they might have traded me, but they can never trade The Curse. Hey, don’t you ever get bored standing there, never swinging at those balls out of the strike zone? Is there really any fun in fielding your position competently? Why not, instead of being good at baseball like you have your whole career, let me persuade you to play poorly?”
“You know, now that you mention it, that does sound appealing...”
*evil laughter* *lightning bolt crashes*
--Excerpt from my screenplay, “The Phantom of the Wrigley” / What Mike Imrem thinks will happen in real life

One option Epstein has is to try to save Castro for the Cubs by drilling a hole in his trunk and injecting chemicals into his system.
TREES! TREES!!!
 
The better option is to cut Castro down, load him on a truck and haul him off to another major-league parkway.
“Hey, Mike? This is your editor. Listen, loved the article, just had one question: do you mind if we cut the section where you graphically describe taking an axe to Starlin Castro and then feeding him to a woodchipper?”
 
History indicates that once a Cubs player is out of the Wrigley Field environment, he has a chance to recover from the curse.
A good guess is that’s what Epstein and his personnel posse lean toward, even if they won’t say so.
No, that actually happens to be a “bad guess.” A “good guess” is that Epstein, who went to Yale, won multiple championships with the Red Sox and happens to be a grown man who can function without a caretaker, doesn’t believe in a made-up thing that doesn’t exist. He probably chooses to run the team based on how the players play baseball instead. You might be trying to guess what An Idiot thinks, in which case: you nailed it!
 
On the surface, Castro is a tempting candidate to rehabilitate. He’s a quality hitter, eventually should add power and can evolve into a plus defender.
The only problem is that the Cubs have cursed him already as evidenced by his recent gaffes.
Oh my god, not only does he literally believe in a curse, but he thinks all that Starlin Castro’s actual flaws will be fixed! He wants to trade Starlin Castro, who he believes will turn into what would undoubtedly be an all-star calibre player year-in and year-out, SOLELY ON THE BASIS OF HIM BEING A CURSED HUMAN BEING. Mike Imrem, who is by all accounts above the age of nine, believes that a baseball player has a fantastical supernatural affliction that will cease to affect him as soon as he is on a different baseball team. This is a belief that he is not ashamed to vocalize. Next up: get rid of James Russell; he’s a witch!
 
So, yes, Starlin Castro has to be traded before miscalculating outs becomes contagious.
Daily Herald staff: I urge you to remove Mike Imrem from your organization, before being a fucking moron becomes contagious.

Day of the Living Bats

Finally! A game that's not painful to watch! Roughing up a pitcher as highly regarded as Zack Greinke is always an encouraging sign (although it is distressing that a potential big-money free agent target next offseason got roughed up by an offense as lowly regarded as this one).

An 8-0 victory over a division rival is never unsatisfying, but this was particularly cathartic. The first six games of the season made it seem as though the "historically bad" campaign I mentioned in my last post was well on its way, and it's always good to be able to back off the ledge when it's only the first week of the season. It's easy to lose track of the fact that this would have been a tough stretch for any team. Facing the top three of a much-improved Nationals team and the reigning division champion in Milwaukee isn't exactly a walk in the park, and the Cubs put themselves in a position to win all but one of those games.

The starters, in particular, have shone more often than not. The bullpen's struggles in the first two games grabbed all the attention, which overshadowed the strong efforts from the front half of the rotation. Dempster and Garza have both duplicated that success in their second starts, and it looks as though the front end of the rotation should be able to keep the Cubs in games even when the bats aren't coming alive. And hey, Paul Maholm might have been even more impressive, managing to lower his ERA by 211.50 over the course of one game!

It seems like the success of the hitters has been directly correlated to how poorly the pitching has been doing (seriously - this is ridiculous), but as more games are played, you'll get more games like today where the team is firing on all cylinders. The schedule doesn't exactly get easier from here (lots of St. Louis and Cincinnati until May), but a little better luck going forward should put the Cubs closer to "league average" than "unmitigated disaster".

Next Year Isn't Here

It's a weird season to be a Cubs fan (and, from what I can gather, a Chicago baseball fan in general). There's the prerequisite early season optimism about the Cubs' future -- perhaps the most justifiable optimism on the North Side in recent memory -- but not even the drunkest person in Wrigleyville expects the Cubs to contend this year.

The Cubs are two innings into a series against the Brewers as I write this. It is a series they are probably going to lose. Something called "Chris Volstad" is on the mound, a guy who had half a good season in 2008 and is probably best known either for getting mad at Nyjer Morgan or for being tall. He's kind of a microcosm of this entire season: a guy young and maybe talented enough where he could eventually become a keeper going forward, but in the (likely?) event that he doesn't, he can be thrown to the discard pile without much fanfare. (An ESPN announcer's attempt to muster some sort of praise for Volstad: "Three straight years he has thrown at least 29 starts -- and he's only 25." Just ignore the fact that his average ERA those years was 4.88.)

It's like an entire season of September baseball, almost, with one major exception. As the starting lineup was displayed on my TV screen, I could form three groups of players: veteran stopgaps who hopefully build their value before leaving the team (Soriano, Byrd, DeJesus), "young" stopgaps who hopefully put it together, most likely before leaving the team (Stewart, Barney, Lahair), and Players I Could Legitimately See Starting In Three Years (Castro, Soto -- and Soto might work his way into the first group with another underwhelming season). Not only is this not a season in which you can expect the Cubs to contend, it's not even a season where -- at least in the first couple of months -- you can really expect to see the young guys grow. The team's best young starter has been the subject of trade rumors. The promising position players are still in the minors. The most intriguing prospect is 29-year-old Bryan Lahair. 

Until those call-ups are made, things like Jeff Samardzija's near-complete-game gem are going to be few and far between. More often than not, a good play may garner a response of "that's going to help his trade value" before "that guy's future with the Cubs is bright". And, inexplicably, it's a season that's going to capture my attention all the way through. This is a thoroughly unique season (god, I hope it is, at least). There will be a lot of in-season roster turnover. A historically bad season isn't out of the question, but this is a year where the wins and the losses don't matter. What matters is watching the wheat separate from the chaff among the plethora of Volstad-quality players, seeing the Sorianos and Byrds gradually give way to the Jacksons and Rizzos. A season without any real expectations -- but the knowledge that a long-term plan is in place -- sets the table for the most satisfying bad year a baseball team can have. The Cubs should come out of it with a promising future that sets the stage for a more traditional brand of irrational optimism. Next year is next year.