Sunday, May 27, 2012

Can This Continue?

The Sox are on a tear right now.  There's no if's and's or but's about it.  5 in a row and 9 of the their last 10.

But it's come in a bit of an unfamiliar way.  The Sox have scored 9 runs in each of their last 4 games for the first time since 1936.  They've actually allowed 24 runs in the past 5 games good for almost 5 a game. Usually that doesn't cut it.  But the Sox have score 52 runs in those same 5 games.

So the question I pose is, can this continue.  The simple answer is, yes why not.  Here's why.

The Sox are hitting .255 as a team.  That puts them at 6th best in the AL.  Nothing spectacular.  How bout pitching?  Well, they are posting a 3.93 ERA on the year.  7th in the AL.

But let's break it down a little more.  The reason I see the Sox being able to continue this better play is because for every positive, there are near equal opposites.  Paul Konerko is hitting .399.  Sure, that's well above what we can expect.  But on the same token, Alexei is hitting .219.

How bout Pierzynski.  He's sitting over .300 at .312.  Very good for him.  Beckham is hitting .224.

Let's move to pitching.  Peavy has been dominant.  6-1 with a 3.07 ERA.  Well, Gavin is at 4-5 with a 5.02.  Sale, good.  Danks, bad.

Is it fair to say Alexei is as far down as Paul is up? Gordon is down as A.J. is up? Peavy and Floyd? Sale and Danks?  I'd say yes.  Absolutely.

And then there's the Rios', Dunn's, Viciedo's of the world.  Let's take a look at what they're doing compared to career numbers.  Rios is a career .275 hitter.  He's hitting .281.  Dunn's career numbers average out to .245, 38 HR's and 96 RBI.  He's currently hitting .244, and is on pace to hit 51 HR's and drive in 120.  Not too far off.

Dayan is a little different because he's a relative unknown.  But look at his hit chart.  There are blue dots (or hits) all over the field.  When guys spray the baseball, it's very difficult for pitchers to adjust to them.

So in short, the Sox are playing great ball right now.  No they will not be able to keep scoring 9 runs a game.  And no they are not going to win 9 out of 10 too often.  But they are 36-22 through 48 games.  That puts them on pace for 88 wins.  But if we go off expected win loss, which takes into account you run differential, the Sox would be 27-21.  That'd be good enough for 92 wins.

And that would be playing just like they have thus far for the rest of the year.  Call me crazy, but I'm actually starting to buy in.

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