Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Is It Possible for Sox?

My initial inclination is to say no, it's really not possible for the Sox to find their way back into this race. However after looking at the number of weeks left, and the schedules each team plays (I'm disregarding the Twins because if the Sox play as well as needed in the projection, they will pass the Twins), I think there actually is a chance.

I'm going to do this backwards. Let's start with the final series of the season in Detroit. 3 games on the road in a place where the Tigers are very very good. This is not going to be easy, meaning I'm ruling out a sweep, but I think 2 of 3 is possible. Not probable, but possible. So there's 1 game made up in the standings.

Go back 2 series and look at the Tigers series at the Cell, this must be a sweep. The only way that it can't be a sweep is if the Sox somehow are within 2 or 3 at that point (maybe even less) which is highly unlikely. So let's put it down as a sweep. So there are 3 more games bringing the total up to 4.

So with those 5 of 6 wins against the Tigers, the Sox need to make up 3.5 games between now and September 25th. That's 15 games for the Sox, 16 for the Tigers. 3.5 games amounts to 7 games over even that go in the Sox favor. 7 seems like a lot, but I think it could be do-able.

Take 2 games a week, each week starting today and ending at the beginning of the first Tigers/Sox series. 2 games, that's all. The schedules don't look good for this to happen (Tigers play 3 @KC, 4 vs. TOR, 3 vs. KC, 3@MIN, 3@CLE), but then again, they have been white hot and are bound to cool off a little. Not to mention some times it is toughest playing some of the "bad" teams because you see a lot of players you have never seen and a lot of different pitchers you aren't used to.

I don't really like the chances, but it breaks down to 2 games this week (we play OAK and LAA, they play KC and TOR), 2 next week (we have SEA, KC, MIN they have KC, MIN, CLE), and then 5 of 6 from them at the end of the year (and in the 3 games in between Sox@CLE, MIN@DET). Steep steep hill yes, unfathomable, no.

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