Starting Staff
1. Chicago Cubs- Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, Sean Marshall
No question the Cubs have the best starting pitching in the NL. On paper this staff has two guys with ace stuff in Harden and Big Z, while Lilly and Dempster would both by the number two pitcher on most teams in the division and the rest of the league. Sean Marshall has lots of upside and as far as fifth starters go, he is good. The problem is Harden is already hurt, Zambrano had shoulder problems last season and Dempster is due for some regression. The Cubs are prepared for some injuries to the pitching staff, but if they start to add up the Cubs will be in trouble.
2. Cincinnati Reds- Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings
The Reds have usually been a team that tries to out-slug their opponent rather than hold them down with good pitching. It appears that management has gone in the direction of good pitching, and this staff certainly is the best on paper of any Reds team of the last 10 years. Harang was awful last year after Dusty Baker abused his arm, but I would expect him to improve from last season. Cueto is a rising star, and Arroyo is consistently good. Volquez will come back to earth a bit, but he is still the ace right now. Owings stayed in the majors because of his hitting, and he should be on a short leash with prospect Homer Bailey waiting for another chance.
3. St. Louis Cardinals- Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Joel Pineiro, Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Loshe.
I feel like I'm going out on a limb with this pick, because I'm basing it on the assumption that Carpenter is healthy for most of the season. If he isn't healthy then this is just another rotation that has an ace and then nothing. Pineiro isn't very good, but he can give the team innings and that's what they need. Wellemeyer and Loshe both had unrealistic seasons last year and are due for some serious regression. Expect both to have ERAs in the mid to high 4s. Without a healthy Carpenter this is a below average staff, with him they can get enough outs to keep the team in the race all season.
4. Milwaukee Brewers- Yovani Gallardo, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Braden Looper, Jeff Suppan
If Chris Carpenter gets hurt I would rank the Brewers ahead of the Cardinals. Gallardo has a chance to be a star if he can avoid injuries. Bush, Looper, and Suppan are all average pitching innings eaters much like the Pineiro, Wellemeyer, Loshe. Manny Parra was pretty good for the start of the season, but as his innings started to get in the 130s and above he started to not be as good. The Brewers are hoping that he can throw more innings this season without giving out the last two months.
5. Houston Astros- Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriquez, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, Brandon Backe
Oswalt is a legit ace, but he had some health issues last season and he carries some WBC concerns with him. Outside of Oswalt the Astros have assembled a crack staff of awful baseball pitchers. Wandy can be respectable at times, and perhaps he can get the job done. Hampton is a joke, he hasn't been healthy in a long time and when he has pitched he hasn't been good. His signing was a showing of how bad the Astros pitching situation really is. Brian Moehler gets the Cubs out all the time, but his numbers tell me he isn't good against other teams. Backe was one of the worst major league starters last season.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates- Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Jeff Karstens, Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny
Look at how bad this group of pitchers is. Maholm was average last season, but the rest of these guys aren't good. Snell was awful last season right after getting a contract extension. Karstens came over from the Yankees and dominated for three starts, almost pitching a perfect game. Then he fell back to earth, time will tell how good he will be. Duke and Gorzelanny were two of the worst pitchers in baseball last season.
Closers
1. Jose Valverde Astros
Too bad there won't be a ton of save chances for Valverde this season because he is a legit stud at closer. He has the attitude that drives everyone nuts and gets the crazy eyes in big situations. He is a giant showboat but he gets the job done. Most of the time if the Astros have the lead going into the ninth the game is pretty much over.
2. Kevin Gregg/Carlos Marmol Cubs
I put the Cubs here because I know by mid-May Marmol will be the closer. Not because Gregg won't get the job done, but because one slip up and Marmol will be ready to take over. Both guys will be able to end the game most of the time usually with lots of strikeouts.
3. Fransico Cordero Reds
As Cordero gets older he becomes less effective, but he is still pretty darn good at the end of games. He still has great stuff and the Reds should have no fear going into the ninth inning of games. They are in good hands.
4. Matt Capps Pirates
Capps is a really good closer but nobody knows it because the Pirates aren't good. Usually the game is over when he comes in, and he can go two innings without any problem. I'm a big fan of Capps and he could be used as trade bait to fetch a few prospects at mid season.
5. Trevor Hoffman Brewers
I don't know how, but Hoffman still gets the job done in the ninth. He has blown some huge games in his life, but nobody has gotten the job done more than Hoffman. He throws in the low 80s, but his change-up is still filthy.
6. Jason Motte Cardinals
Hey somebody has to do it, and Motte throws hard. After the revolving door of awful last season its Motte's turn to try and close out the game. He has a chance to be decent, but if he isn't good then the Cardinals are in trouble again. If Chris Carpenter has trouble staying healthy as a starter they need to move him to closer in order to finish off games that they have the lead.
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