Carlos Zambrano (2008 14-6 3.91 ERA 114 ERA+; Career 3.48 ERA 128 ERA+)
Big Z is the ace of this staff. I don't care if people think he isn't a true ace, last years playoff series proved that Big Z is the man who you want on the mound if the Cubs need to win one game. While Dumpster and Harden crapped their pants Big Z brought it, only to have his defense fail. Z had a great first half of 2008, then shoulder problems gave him issues in the second half. He did toss a no-hitter in September, but had bad starts the rest of the way.
I am pretty concerned that Z will have to go on the DL once or twice this season even if its just to give his arm a break. I think we will get 30 starts out of Z and numbers pretty much around his career averages. An ERA in the low to mid threes, good strikeout numbers and 16-19 wins.
My Projection: 30 starts, 205 IP, 17-8, 3.35 ERA, 150 K
Ryan Dempster (2008 17-8 2.96 ERA, 151 ERA+, Career 4.55 ERA, 95 ERA+)
Dempster was probably the Cubs best starter last season, but before anybody thinks that he is going to have another season of ace quality production, remember that he was in a contract year. He also fell apart in the playoffs walking seven 4 2/3 innings. Now that he has a four year contract and doesn't have to worry about getting paid, Dempster will almost certainly fall off. I don't care how hard he works and how dedicated he is, the man is an average career pitcher who had a great season when it was time for him to get a new contract.
Hopefully we can get 35 starts out of Dempster and hopefully he can be at least above average throughout the season. Pinella is considering him as the opening day starter, and that's fine because Dempster deserves to get one last reward for his excellent work last year. An ERA around 3.9 to 4.1 would be ideal, especially if he can keep his walks down and his strikeouts up.
My Projection 13-9, 210 IP, 4.11 ERA, 165 K
Ted Lilly (2008 17-9 4.09 ERA, 109 ERA+ Career 4.40 ERA, 103 ERA+)
Ted has been pretty damn consistent since he signed a much maligned 4 year $4o million contract. I pretty much expect the same sort of numbers out of Ted, but probably not as many wins. Ted is pitching for Team USA in the WBC this year, his hope is that it might help him overcome the slow start he had last season. Ted was pretty bad in April, but more than made up for it down the stretch.
Unless there is an unforeseen injury, Ted is going to give us 35 starts and have the same solid numbers.
My Projection 15-8, 210 IP, 4.05 ERA, 175 K
At this point I have 100 of the 162 needed starts covered unless there is a serious injury. I'm going to get a little creative with the last 62 starts because of the uncertainty of the remaining pitchers health.
Sean Marshall (2008 3-5, 3.86 ERA, 116 ERA+, Career 4.62 ERA, 100 ERA+)
Marshall has been in and out of the starting rotation the last 3 years, and this season is his time to shine. He is the leader for the final starting spot right now, and I'm sure he will do a solid job. The problem is that coming into this season his career high innings pitched is 125 2/3. I can't expect more than 160 innings out of him this season. Maybe about 25 starts if he stays healthy.
If he gets to start he will have around a 4.3 ERA and maybe 12 wins.
My Projection 12-9, 160 IP, 4.30 ERA, 140 K
Rich Harden (2008 10-2 2.07 ERA, 206 ERA+, Career 3.23 ERA, 136 ERA+)
Harden is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy, his numbers for the Cubs before his arm gave out were disgusting. But everything I just wrote is the problem with Harden. He is never healthy, the entire time he was on the Cubs last season there was a giant cloud of "please don't get hurt" around every Harden start. He has already said that he has a tear in his shoulder going into this season. This is probably something that surgery should take care of, but the Cubs and Harden both think rest and a smart approach will make it a non-issue. I know better than that, its an issue and Harden has already been delayed in his start to spring training, he is about 10 days behind the rest of the pitching staff. That isn't a big deal at this point of the season, but it shows that his outlook has to include obligatory time on the DL.
I'll take Harden to miss a ton of starts and give Cub fans a giant headache the entire season. If I was Jim Hendry and I thought that the Cubs could win the division without Harden pitching at all, I would put him on the shelf until August. Work him into shape in August and let him get a start or two in September that way come playoff time his is rounding into top form. Of course that won't happen, Harden will start three or four games in April and then miss a few months before coming back at 75% sometime in late August. Don't expect more than 15 starts out of Harden this season, and even that would probably be an optimistic outlook. He will have great numbers for the five innings a game he gives us and maybe he will be healthy in the playoffs.
My projection 5-2, 70 IP, 2.50 ERA, 70 K
Now we still have to fill in 27 starts, and I think a combination of Samardzija, Randy Wells, and Chad Gaudin will fill those starts in. Between those three I think you can get maybe 13 wins and a 4.75 ERA in those starts. For most divisions that might not get the job done, but I think that the rest of the team is just good enough for the Cubs to get away with it.
Without injuries this is one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Since half the starters are on high risk injury watch, it will be interesting to see how the team responds when these guys do go down. Either way right now on paper the Cubs have a starting rotation that could carry them a long way.
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