Who is the Fourth Starter?

It seems like the Cubs starting rotation is in pretty good shape going into the season. Zambrano. Dempster, and Ted may be the best 1-2-3 in the NL. Rich Harden is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy, but he is never healthy (sound familiar?). So four of the five slots are taken, though the Harden slot will only be used by Harden about 15 times this season, so there will have to be a suitable backup ready. Because of his health concerns I'm calling Harden the fifth starter this season. Meaning that somebody will have to step in and be the fourth starter. There are a few guys who could get the job; Sean Marshall, Chad Gaudin, Aaron Heilman, and Jeff Samardzija. Each guy has some strengths and weaknesses, and I think there is one clear choice to be a full time starter, and another clear choice for Rich Harden bailout.

From last to first

Aaron Heilman

The thing about Aaron Heilman is that he isn't really a starter. He started a few games at the start of his career, and wasn't really that good at it. Once he moved to the bullpen he was actually really good up until last year. He had three years of an ERA in the low to mid 3's. Then for some reason he just blew up last season with a 5.21 ERA. This could have been because of overwork or maybe he had an injury, but I think he could come back and be a solid bullpen guy and maybe be the normal seventh inning guy. Of course he could also be just as bad as he was last year, and considering what we gave up to get him, I wouldn't be very happy about that. In the interest of thinking positive, I'll take Heilman as a good bullpen guy, only to be used to start if we are really desperate.

Chad Gaudin

Chad came along with Harden last year and had an interesting first season with the Cubs. He arrived and actually had a great start, with a 1.84 ERA in his first 14.2 innings. Then he went drinking and fell into a dumpster, and his back gave him problems the rest of the season. He had four awful outings and finished the season with a 6.26 ERA with the Cubs. Again he was injured, and considering that he had a decent season before the dumpster crash, I think he will be another guy who could be the seventh inning option, but also he will probably be the long reliever, mop-up man. He also could be used as part of the Rich Harden insurance package. Gaudin will serve his part on this team, and I'll bet he gets 5 starts this season, but for the most part he will come out of the bullpen.

Jeff Samardzija

The Shark will have his time in the majors as a starting pitcher, but not quite yet. He came up last year to fill a spot in the bullpen, and did a nice job, but his future is as a starting pitcher and starting in 2010 he will get his chance. I think that he will get sent to AAA to start the season so that he gets to be a full time starter and start every 5 days. Since Rich Harden will be hurt by June 1st, the Shark will get a good number of Big League starts as well. I'll guess about 15 starts for the Cubs this year. I would think his big league starts would average to about a 4.5 ERA, maybe a bit lower. 

Sean Marshall

This is going to be the new member of the Cubs starting rotation. I have almost no doubt, which makes it seem weird that I would even be talking about this. Marshall has been pushing towards making that starting rotation for a while now, and this is finally his time. He should be able to stay healthy the entire season and will hopefully bring a slightly sub-4 ERA. I think that he will be a solid fourth starter and possibly one of the better fourth starters in the NL. I may be higher on Marshall than some people, but I have a lot of faith in him. 

Bottom line, Marshall will get the chance to start 30-35 games if he stays healthy, and I think he can get the job done. At the very least I think he can help get this team to the playoffs and IF Harden is healthy at that time, move to the bullpen. The Shark will get a good number of starts because of Harden getting hurt.

This is one of the better starting rotations in baseball, and without question the best starting rotation in the division. If we get lucky and Harden stays healthy, look out baseball, but since he won't I'll be content with the best rotation in the NL Central.